SCENARIOS FOR 2040
In researching and drafting Global Trends, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) received invaluable support from a broad and diverse list of contributors, including think tanks, universities, consultants, business leaders, individual scholars and experts, students, and colleagues inside and outside government. While we cannot thank every contributor, we would like to acknowledge below those organizations and individuals whose contributions were particularly important for helping shape and refine Global Trends.
Many people contributed to the research and production of Global Trends. We thank Terree Haidet for leading our scenarios development process. The NIC's Strategic Futures Group (SFG) is heavily indebted to the outreach support and can-do attitude of the NIC’s analytic program managers from Booz Allen Hamilton. Graphics maestro Mark Hernandez led the design of Global Trends cover to cover and patiently worked with the NIC to produce creative, detailed, and illustrative graphics and supplementary materials.
We are indebted to our partners throughout the US Government, including but not limited to officers at the Central Intelligence Agency, Department of State, Department of Energy, US Agency for International Development, Department of Treasury, Department of Defense, National Security Agency, and Office of the Director of National Intelligence for the time and expertise that they generously provided throughout this project. Their contributions ranged from participation in expert workshops to reviewing drafts to drafting specific content for regional papers, building block research papers, and Global Trends. The Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research played a particularly prominent role in hosting dozens of workshops and exchanges with outside experts, a collaboration that substantially improved the Global Trends process. We also deeply appreciate the guidance and support of Embassy country teams, which provided their own local and national expertise and ensured we met with the widest possible range of informed experts. The NIC is grateful for many partners, including SAIC, Leidos, and Centra Technologies for providing key conference support and convening a series of analytic simulations, scenario exercises, and workshops that tackled key uncertainties in Global Trends.
We wish to thank the Brookings Institution, Center for a New American Security, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, The Economist Intelligence Unit, Institute for the Future, International Institute for Strategic Studies, National Science Foundation, Oxford Economics, Pardee Center for International Futures, RAND Corporation, Royal Institute of International Affairs, Strategic Business Insights, and The Conference Board for conducting research and delivering commissioned assessments on key functional trends and scenarios development.
The NIC benefited from invaluable discussions with faculty and students at a range of universities, including Georgetown University, Johns Hopkins University, Harvard University, Notre Dame, Stanford University, Tufts University, the University of Pennsylvania, the University of Denver, University of Texas at Austin, and the University of Virginia. We also received key feedback and insights in our virtual discussion with students from universities affiliated with the Intelligence Community’s Centers for Academic Excellence. We would also like to thank the Columbia Heights Educational Campus in Washington, DC for hosting a conversation with students about the project early in the process.
Global Trends benefited tremendously from exchanges with our international foresight partners, including Canada’s Policy Horizons, the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, Finnish Innovation Fund (SITRA), the Finnish Prime Minister’s Office and Foreign Ministry, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Strategic Foresight Unit, the Swedish Foreign Ministry and National Defense College, the Singapore Centre for Strategic Futures, and the UK Ministry of Defense Development, Concepts, and Doctrine Centre.
An essential component of this project was our conversations with audiences all around the world. We are grateful to the academics, business leaders, government officials, civil society organizations, journalists, and futurists in various corners of the globe who took the time to share their ideas and perspectives with us.
We also would like to individually recognize and thank the following contributors:
Professor John Ikenberry of Princeton University co-led workshops with SFG on key questions and provided critical feedback and support throughout three years of research, as did fellow scholars in their personal capacity: Amitav Acharya, Robert Art, Sheri Berman, Bear Braumoeller, Zach Cooper, Dale Copeland, Matt Daniels, Henry Farrell, Tanisha Fazal, Martha Finnemore, Harold James, Robert Jervis, Miles Kahler, David Kang, Jonathan Kirchner, Jacob Kirkegaard, Charles Kupchan, Jeff Legro, Mike Mastanduno, Kate McNamara, John Mearsheimer, Jonathan Moreno, Abraham Newman, John Owen, Barry Posen, Mira Rapp-Hooper, Douglas Rediker, Elizabeth Saunders, Randy Schweller, Jack Snyder, Manfred Steger, Constanze Stelzenmueller, Monica Toft, Jessica Chen Weiss, William Wohlforth, Tom Wright, Ali Wyne, and Keren Yarhi-Milo.
Many scholars and other experts provided critical inputs and reviews of early drafts and outlines, including: Jeff Alsott, Daniel Byman, Thomas Carothers, Gerald Cohen, David Dollar, Roz Engel, Steven Feldstein, Martha Finnemore, Frank Gavin, Jack Goldstone, David Gordon, Cullen Hendrix, John Ikenberry, Chris Kirchoff, Linc Krause, Kristin Lord, Michael Mastanduno, Jason Matheny, John McLaughlin, Kevin Nealer, Tara O’Toole, Julia Philipps, Monica Toft, Adam Wasserman, Steve Weber, and Tom Wright.
Other scholars wrote key papers, organized workshops, or presented in their individual capacity on a range of crucial topics, including Robert Bentley, Sheri Berman, Evan Berry, Sam Brannan, Hal Brands, Matt Carnes, José Casanova, Richard Cincotta, Jack Chow, Alan Cooperman, Keith Darden, Peter Feaver, Erica Frantz, Francis Fukuyama, Bonnie Glaser, Jack Goldstone, Anna Grzymala-Busse, Peter Huybers, Will Inboden, Azza Karam, Rima Kawas, Jason Klocek, Peter Mandaville, Doug Mandell, James Manyika, Elizabeth Moore, DJ Patil, Elizabeth Prodromou, Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Jennifer Sciubba, Rogers Smith, Shannon Smith, Kristina Stöeckl, Adam Wasserman, Erin Wilson, Andreas Wimmer, Tamara Wittes, and Erol Yayboke.
Sumit Ganguly at the University of Indiana assembled a team of regional experts who provided five and 20-year outlooks for Global Trends: Amitav Acharya, Cornelius Adebahr, Clement Adibe, Claudia Avellaneda, Neil DeVotta, Michelle Dunne, Eric Farnsworth, Timothy Hellwig, Steven Heydemann, Feisal Amin Istrabadi, Sameer Lalwani, Raúl Madrid, Saadia Pekkanen, William Reno, Ali Riaz, David Shambaugh, and Elizabeth Threlkeld.